Factoid

[Yorick]

We all know the Lions are talented on offense, but how do you measure it? One index is to look at the ideal trade value chart used during the draft. Based on the QB, top 3 WR, and principal tail back, if you add up the points of their draft position, the Detroit trumps the rest of the NFL. In fact, the margin is so high they best the Colts by 25%. I know, I know, there is a big difference between draft expectations and actual production, still that is an interesting indictator of how talented the Lions are at the principal playmaker positions.

[TechLion]

I believe, no team in NFL HISTORY has as many high round draft picks on offense as the Lions do and the team was ranked 24th in the NFL last year. Look at how high Millen has drafted.

#2-CRogers
#3-John Joey Harringon
#7-Roy Williams
#10-Mike Williams
#20-Jeff Backus
#30-Kevin Jones

Half of the offense is a 1st round draft choice and most are top 10. Could you imagine if you had these picks to build an offense with now? Guys, this has been a total disaster because this joke for a GM used all his picks on offense and the team can't score a fucking TD. The defense has been totally neglected and has more holes than that three sluts I wish I had sex with last night. If you want to measure draft picks vs production, the Lions offense comes in DEAD last.

[SnowDog]

The last improvment you will see is wins

[Phalanx]

Hurry Tech, get your licks in now....before it's too late.

If you are going to include all of those draft picks, all of which have come in the last 4 years, then you also have to make an allowance for experience. You have to at least give them this year to prove themselves. We are about to see a different Lion's offense than in past years.

[wombat]

Good look, Yorick. Millen has definitely focused on offense in the first round, to many of our dismay. I hoped he had picked defense somewhere along the line in the first as well. To make up for that, Millen has only drafted one offensive player in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, and that was Raiola. 16 first day picks, with 7 offense and 9 defense. That is honestly pretty balanced, but I agree that it would be nice to have a first round stud defensive player in there.

Again Tech, you cannot expect rookies or 2nd year players to be HUGE in the season. They are growing and adjusting. Very few players are great within 2 years of being drafted. But KJ and Roy were good rookies, CRog should be good if he can stay on the field... we're looking pretty solid.

[Mandrake]

We all know the Lions are talented on offense, but how do you measure it?
The obvious answer is to measure what they have done in the NFL. But, because this is not fully known yet and I think you were look for other creative ways, how about point spread analysis. Team Efficiency Rating—or TER that many Vegas bookies use seems to be a reliable source in predicting outcomes and perhaps that is equal to talent. TERs are like Power rankings but are more sophisticated.

"(one of) The main function of Team Efficiency Rating is to expose a teams true "core skill level" and also reveal how they match-up man-for-man with their opponent, through the comparison of statistical "differentials"—or the net difference between the same key statistics for both teams."

[def]

No other team has as many high draft picks and you can add Woody and Pollard I believe to that list Tech....

Good post Yorick, but I am afraid it doesn't matter if you ave Zues, Apollo, Medusa and King Midas on offense if they don't win it don't mean shit, let's hope these guys find their 4th gears and run rapid for another 6 years or so...

[SnowDog]

Tech never was one to acknowledge that some rookies need to gain experience before they shine in this league. He thinks every high pick should deliver immediately or they are a bust. There is a scale to these things that goes :

receivers and running backs - immediate impact
defensive linemen and linebackers - 2nd or 3rd year
secondary and quarterbacks - 3rd or 4th year
offensive linemen - 4th or 5th year

There are freaks and exceptions like Vick or Kearse but mostly you have to give players time to excel like Holt, Redding, Lehman, Smith, Joey, Fitz, Backus, etc.. Usually if a RB or WR doesn't show something his rookie year he never will - Most QBs can be labelled a bust after their 3rd year - Secondary you can tell right off if they have it but it takes a while to develope

Tech gives up on players too quickly - look at how well a number of our players are this year in the key seasons at their positions - I think it's going to be excellence in some cases and mediocre in others - I think Holt should breakout, Joey should be more polished, and Redding is going to be huge - I also think Backus and Raiola will play much better this year - both entering their 5th years with better talent next to them - patience, tech, patience - the win now or else crowd needs to smack that shit down and see what develops before spewing all over their shorts and calling for heads.

[Yorick]

Good point snow, but I disagree with your numbers. Peak productivity does vary by position historically (although variable within epochs. i. e. more sophisticated passing offenses, WCO being the penulitimate in complexity)

RBs- 0-8 games
Defensive Players (reacting): 2 seasons on average. DL a bit quicker, DBs a bit longer, and LBs most of all due to coverage and run responsibilities.
OL: 2-years (physical, mental, technique)
WRs-3 seasons (complexity of modern passing offenses, can make immeadiate impact with great skill and vanilla offense)
QBs-4 seasons

Peak productivity could be defined as the threshold where you reach your career average. Of course, there is also variability based on individual player's football intelligence and the complexity of the system they are working under.

[Fuzzman]

Great teams are built not inherited. So whatever the number of years it takes for those to develop. They need to find an identity or a weapon they can stand behind.

The Rams have built their high flying offense around one of the greatest all around RB to ever play the game, Marshall Faulk. Steven Jackson continues that tradition.

The Broncos have built a tradition of a great OL. A fatman could run for 1200 yds. behind that line.

The Ravens have built around a solid Defense.

The Packers around Brett Favre.

What do the Lions have to build around. They had Barry and since his departure they have tried and failed to find an identity. Maybe Jones is the answer, or the WR, or Joey, who knows. But until they do this team will have a hard time building winning traditions.

[SalineHornet]

We all know the Lions are talented on offense, but how do you measure it? One index is to look at the ideal trade value chart used during the draft. Based on the QB, top 3 WR, and principal tail back, if you add up the points of their draft position, the Detroit trumps the rest of the NFL. In fact, the margin is so high they best the Colts by 25%. I know, I know, there is a big difference between draft expectations and actual production, still that is an interesting indictator of how talented the Lions are at the principal playmaker positions.

What a complete dumbass. So much for that theory.

:icon_joker:

[Rusty Hilger]

Wow, four years later and it's the same story with different names and faces.

Pretty sad.

[Canadian Fan]

Wow, four years later and it's the same story with different names and faces.

Pretty sad.

To borrow a comment from Sanders

Lather, rinse, repeat

[bigdogchris]

There is still a lot of past mistakes that this organization is in the process of weeding out. Millen's fingerprints are still all over this team and it's going to take time to clean them off. It's been 1 single off season. What more do you really want? It's about changes that have been made SENSE Mayhew took over, not before. SENSE Mayhew has taken over, I feel they have made pretty darn good decisions and can't find ones I don't agree with.

[SalineHornet]

Many of Millens fingerprints are no longer present becuase most the players he drafted are GONE.

Alas poor Yorick, he sure did smell. Just goes to show that a large vocabulary doesn't always equate to intelligence.

[Felix]

really? youre going to talk shit about a guy that isnt even here anymore to defend himself?

[Vic Turner]

Ummm have to agree here with Felix. Not cool calling people out and stirring up drama when you don't have to deal with it, like the Dullard comment. You may not like them or whatever, but they have not caused any trouble here for YEARS. The ones that do still post here are cool mofo's imo..and now calling out old posters is not cool, it will only lead to trouble...and I assure you I will not clean up any messes it causes!

[bigdogchris]

Many of Millens fingerprints are no longer present becuase most the players he drafted are GONE.

Alas poor Yorick, he sure did smell. Just goes to show that a large vocabulary doesn't always equate to intelligence.The fact that almost every player he drafted, which should be the backbone & starters on our team, are gone, itself, is the biggest fingerprint of all! Please don't be that dense!

[Rusty Hilger]

It's been 1 single off season. What more do you really want? It's about changes that have been made SENSE Mayhew took over, not before.

The whole point is that even after Millen is gone, we're still drafting offensive skill players with our first picks in the draft ... and our offense still doesn't have much to show for it. It's like Mayhew picked right up where Millen left off and didn't skip a beat.

[Felix]

But if Millens picks had worked out, would we have taken a QB? No...

This team needed a QB in a bad way, so I have no problem with it....the 2 top OT prospects, 1 is injured for the year after holding out and the other is playing RT on a bad team...looks like they took the best available player....

[bigdogchris]

The whole point is that even after Millen is gone, we're still drafting offensive skill players with our first picks in the draft ... and our offense still doesn't have much to show for it. It's like Mayhew picked right up where Millen left off and didn't skip a beat.I understand that, completely, believe me I do. But what some people are failing to understand is that the Lions were/are bad on both sides of the ball. You can sit here and argue all day that you draft defense first, then offense or vice versa but the bottom line is this team needed and still needs more talent, regardless of the position. We are not good enough in any area to say 'we don't need more here'.

Millens problem wasn't the order in which he drafted players, it was the players he drafted. If Mayhew drafts offensive players first, so be it. If the players end up being good quality players that will actually stay more than a year or two, is it a mistake for taking them? No, because good teams need offensive players just as much as defensive players. If the 2009 draft class ends up being mostly/all bust like Millens drafts were, then start criticizing the picks.

Just saying "draft defense" isn't the answer. There's far more involved that that.

[IrishBear]

The whole point is that even after Millen is gone, we're still drafting offensive skill players with our first picks in the draft ... and our offense still doesn't have much to show for it. It's like Mayhew picked right up where Millen left off and didn't skip a beat.

Eh?..Sammie Lee Hill..Louis Delmas...DeAndre Levy...Zack Follett..all are offensive players right? The First round is'nt important, its the entire draft..

[Murtyle]

The whole point is that even after Millen is gone, we're still drafting offensive skill players with our first picks in the draft ... and our offense still doesn't have much to show for it. It's like Mayhew picked right up where Millen left off and didn't skip a beat.

Right cause drafting Gos and Dizon that year we HAD to have a RT and MLB worked out huh?

Just cause you draft a position of need doesn't mean you fill it... Dizon certainly didn't fill the MLB hole did he? Gos is ok, but there were a few guys there that I wanted over him and would have been better picks... One of the CBs or Mendenhall specifically...

I honestly don't get it... Every year we see teams win with a different formula... Some are great running teams, some are great passing teams, some win with great defense and special teams... Why is it that you guys don't get that there is no 1 way to build a team? It is right there for everyone to see, but you can't see the forest through the trees... The absolute fact of the matter is that if you hit on your draft picks, regardless of position, you're going to be a good team...

You say WRs don't matter, I"ll give you last years Cardinals... You say QBs don't matter I'll give you the Falcons... You say offensive lines don't matter, I'll give you last year's Jets... You say defenses don't matter I'll give you the Ravens... You say you can't win without a good oline, I'll give you Pittsburgh... You say you can't win without good WRs I'll give you last year's Dolphins... You say you can't win without a good defense, I'll give you the Colts... You say you can't win without a good running game I'll give you the Eagles... You say you can't win without a good QB I'll give you lasts year's Vikings or the good Bears teams over the years...

Go ahead, try and find a trend like "building in the trenches"... You're not going to find one... What you will find, is that the teams with the overall best talent generally do the best, no matter what their identity is...

Take the emotion, presuppositions and the rhetoric out of it and look at it logically...

[Felix]

I think a little tear just came to my eye...that was a rant of beauty right there....

[OKLIONSFAN]

I think a little tear just came to my eye...that was a rant of beauty right there....

Yes it was, should be nominated for post of the decade.

[def]

Right cause drafting Gos and Dizon that year we HAD to have a RT and MLB worked out huh?

Just cause you draft a position of need doesn't mean you fill it... Dizon certainly didn't fill the MLB hole did he? Gos is ok, but there were a few guys there that I wanted over him and would have been better picks... One of the CBs or Mendenhall specifically...

I honestly don't get it... Every year we see teams win with a different formula... Some are great running teams, some are great passing teams, some win with great defense and special teams... Why is it that you guys don't get that there is no 1 way to build a team? It is right there for everyone to see, but you can't see the forest through the trees... The absolute fact of the matter is that if you hit on your draft picks, regardless of position, you're going to be a good team...

You say WRs don't matter, I"ll give you last years Cardinals... You say QBs don't matter I'll give you the Falcons... You say offensive lines don't matter, I'll give you last year's Jets... You say defenses don't matter I'll give you the Ravens... You say you can't win without a good oline, I'll give you Pittsburgh... You say you can't win without good WRs I'll give you last year's Dolphins... You say you can't win without a good defense, I'll give you the Colts... You say you can't win without a good running game I'll give you the Eagles... You say you can't win without a good QB I'll give you lasts year's Vikings or the good Bears teams over the years...

Go ahead, try and find a trend like "building in the trenches"... You're not going to find one... What you will find, is that the teams with the overall best talent generally do the best, no matter what their identity is...

Take the emotion, presuppositions and the rhetoric out of it and look at it logically...

This is Herculian! Put it away into the RZ Vault, err Time Capsule. Lock it up. Save it for our Grandchildren!

However saying all this, we know the better teams in the NFL DO HAVE an identity, as Murytle has stated above.

Teams like the Lions are constantly searching for that Identity. We are faceless and need intangibles i.e. lucky bounces to win. No dynasty was built upon that. No winning football team has meanial play in all 3 phases of the game...

ALSO - If you want to battle wits with Yorick, Saline, even you better bring a lunch, because Yorick has been known to put people down so thoroughly and so tactfully that they didn't even know it. So good luck with that.

[goldenlions]

I have to admit that was good stuff, Murtyle.

What is up with Saline and the thread digging without making a point? Must be the bye week!!! LOL!

[SalineHornet]

The fact that almost every player he drafted, which should be the backbone & starters on our team, are gone, itself, is the biggest fingerprint of all! Please don't be that dense!

That was the point made. You should have understood that. I'll connect the dots for you next time.

[SalineHornet]

really? youre going to talk shit about a guy that isnt even here anymore to defend himself?

Sure. Has Millen been here the past few years?

[Felix]

Oh, I didnt realize Millen posted on here...ever....

I guess you cant see the difference between poster on the internet and public figure...oh well...



It looks like you missed the point of my post....my point was, that is chickenshit and cowardice....but I hope you feel like a big man now and that you feel better about yourself...

[SalineHornet]

Oh when you say "guy" you only meant people that post here... not other people that are not here to defend themselves... no wait.. guys that used to post here... ok i got it.

My answer is still yes...

[Rusty Hilger]

Millens problem wasn't the order in which he drafted players, it was the players he drafted. If Mayhew drafts offensive players first, so be it. If the players end up being good quality players that will actually stay more than a year or two, is it a mistake for taking them? No, because good teams need offensive players just as much as defensive players. If the 2009 draft class ends up being mostly/all bust like Millens drafts were, then start criticizing the picks.

There's a difference between simply drafting good players, and building a team.

When building a house, you don't start with the roof, just because it's a really good roof (okay, horrible analogy, but you get my drift).

[SalineHornet]

The last improvment you will see is wins

Well, we're waiting.

http://content.ytmnd.com/content/5/7/0/570a4a10ae6d5f3342c5b0b9e8a50e56.jpg

[Murtyle]

There's a difference between simply drafting good players, and building a team.

When building a house, you don't start with the roof, just because it's a really good roof (okay, horrible analogy, but you get my drift).

My drill instructor was right... There always is going to be that 10% that just don't get it...

[Felix]

Ok, I dont get it...are you saying you agree with Rusty or am I missing the sarcasm? Bah...doesnt matter...


Rusty, didnt Millen take a LT and OC in his first year, then follow it up with a QB, then a WR? Honestly, that seems like a decent plan...Started with the foundation (a better house building analogy than yours) then added the frame...again, the strategy was solid, it was the poor picks that was the ultimate killer.....how many of Millens picks are on the team now? Exactly....

[Murtyle]

Ok, I dont get it...are you saying you agree with Rusty or am I missing the sarcasm? Bah...doesnt matter...

No I'm saying he's one of the 10% that just doesn't get it... I ramble off the top of my head a myriad of different ways teams have been successfully assembled and yet he completely ignores it pulls out the horrible building a house cliche...

[Rusty Hilger]

Rusty, didnt Millen take a LT and OC in his first year, then follow it up with a QB, then a WR?

Yea, and even on paper, it looks like an awful lot of offensive players, don't you think?

[Felix]

If the players were as good as their draft position suggested, 3 years to build an O would have been fine with me....then the other 4-5 years could have focused more on D...

But lets not forget, he did take a couple DL (redding and Rogers), some LB (lehman and Bailey), some CB's, etc in the 2nd and 3rd rounds....the D wasnt completely ignored....remember, this was when the league made all the changes to promote higher scoring games and opening up the O...so it was actually a good plan, just poorly executed....

[millenbacker]

Eh?..Sammie Lee Hill..Louis Delmas...DeAndre Levy...Zack Follett..all are offensive players right? The First round is'nt important, its the entire draft..

IMO that's the comment of the year. If you look at the teams that are playoff calibur year in and year out they get players in the 2nd day of the draft that contribute EVERY WEEK.

I think for the first time since I've been a Lions fan we have that kind of draft.

Schwartz was by far the best thing to happen ot the Lions. We may need to make changes at OC or DC but Schwartz is a god send to the Lions.

MB

[Rusty Hilger]

If the players were as good as their draft position suggested, 3 years to build an O would have been fine with me....then the other 4-5 years could have focused more on D...

But lets not forget, he did take a couple DL (redding and Rogers), some LB (lehman and Bailey), some CB's, etc in the 2nd and 3rd rounds....the D wasnt completely ignored....remember, this was when the league made all the changes to promote higher scoring games and opening up the O...so it was actually a good plan, just poorly executed....


I don't even know how we got on to this subject.

The point is that when your team has the worst defense in NFL history and becomes the first team since the inception of the NFL to not win a single game, primarily because you're down by 30 by halftime of most games ...

... it might be time to start making a few exceptions. Yea, I agree that for most teams, the best player available strategy has a lot of merit. But at some point, common sense has to come in to play. When you are that bad on one side of the ball ... you might consider making an exception or two with your draft strategy.

If my heart was failing and ready to give out at any minute, but I also had a bad kidney that had maybe a year left on it, then I want the heart transplant right now. I don't care if it's a particularly strong year for kidneys, and I don't care if it's bad "strategy" for getting well again, etc. etc. In this situation and under these circumstances, the heart is what we should be focusing on. And I don't have to be a doctor or medical professional to make that assesment.

[Sanders97]

IMO that's the comment of the year. If you look at the teams that are playoff calibur year in and year out they get players in the 2nd day of the draft that contribute EVERY WEEK.

I think for the first time since I've been a Lions fan we have that kind of draft.

Schwartz was by far the best thing to happen ot the Lions. We may need to make changes at OC or DC but Schwartz is a god send to the Lions.

MB


Am I missing something??? Which of our second day selections is contributing every week???

You can't even count Stafford at this point because of the injury, so that leaves Pettigrew and Delmas that I can think of and I'm not sure I can count Pettigrew's efforts as "contributing".

Nonetheless, they're all first day draftees.

But I agree. Good teams find players in the later rounds to help the team on a regular basis, not just as role players or ST's.

[bogartin]

Am I missing something??? Which of our second day selections is contributing every week???

You can't even count Stafford at this point because of the injury, so that leaves Pettigrew and Delmas that I can think of and I'm not sure I can count Pettigrew's efforts as "contributing".

Nonetheless, they're all first day draftees.

But I agree. Good teams find players in the later rounds to help the team on a regular basis, not just as role players or ST's.

Didn't this year's draft have the 1st round on the first day, with the 2nd and 3rd on day 2? I can't remember. Either way, Levy was a 3rd round pick... and he's contributed a good deal. Hell, he's had quite a few fans calling for Sims' head.

[Felix]

1st 2 rounds on day 1, 3-7 on day 2...next year 1st round will be prime time...


And dont forget D Williams has contributed, as has Hill and Brown...

[Sanders97]

I thought the comment in question was "contributing every week".

So far, Delmas is the only one to have done that.

That's it. Put Delmas in the Hall of Fame right now. The rest are busts. :icon_geek:

[K-Dawg]

That's it. Put Delmas in the Hall of Fame right now. The rest are busts. :icon_geek:

ZOMG!

TECH HAS HACKED INTO SANDERS PC!

[IrishBear]

ZOMG!

TECH HAS HACKED INTO SANDERS PC!

Awah shit.

I don't expect any of our 3rd-7th round rookies to contribute every week. Thats the thing with late round rookies..they usually require time to grow, because they come from small schools (Hill) or have the talent and tools but improper teaching. Some have injuries that drop there value. Point being is, up until Schwartz there has not been a coach or gm that has been able to

A. Find late round talent
B. Utilize that talent
C. Use late round picks at all
D. Have patience with that late round pick
F. Know when a pick is'nt going anywhere.

To me after the third round, it shouldn't be drafting position of need unless you plan on the player being a project, if your not going to do that, talent and BPA are where its at.

Its clear to me that Schwartz meet most of those mentioned above.

[Sanders97]

Awah shit.

I don't expect any of our 3rd-7th round rookies to contribute every week. Thats the thing with late round rookies..they usually require time to grow, because they come from small schools (Hill) or have the talent and tools but improper teaching. Some have injuries that drop there value. Point being is, up until Schwartz there has not been a coach or gm that has been able to

A. Find late round talent
B. Utilize that talent
C. Use late round picks at all
D. Have patience with that late round pick
F. Know when a pick is'nt going anywhere.

To me after the third round, it shouldn't be drafting position of need unless you plan on the player being a project, if your not going to do that, talent and BPA are where its at.

Its clear to me that Schwartz meet most of those mentioned above.

See, this is what confuses me. You guys will say it's far too early to tell if a player will be a bust or not, but you're already convinced that Schwartz/Mayhew and company are the right people for the job. I can't give them that benefit of the doubt because, from your list.....

A...I don't see any late round talent. I don't even see any sure fire early round talent. Delmas looks to be about the best bet so far. Stafford is hopeful, but nobody knows what's going on with his knee. Maybe he's out for the year and that will put him behind in development. Maybe he becomes injury prone.

B...I haven't seen anything to suggest that they're utilyzing any talent because I just don't see much talent. The only thing I see is Petersons last game and that could have been a fluke. Time will tell if they start using him properly. Also, I don't consider benching veterans for poor performance in favor of rookies and relative unknowns who won't perform any better to be a solid way to utilyze talent.

C...Do you mean like using Williams as a return man and a WR??? That's only been the last couple weeks as players have been injured. I'm sure other 3rd through 5th round rookies have been used during the Millen years.

D...Patience??? I understand where you're coming from, but if it becomes an issue where that patience is causing the team to lose while a veteran sits on the bench, I don't see that as very productive at all.

E...(You skipped E and went to F...LOL) Which rookie has proven that he isn't working out and has been yanked??? Aaron Brown??? We didn't need a RB anyway, remember??? Our star free agent acquisition was Maurice Morris. Furthermore, if they've given up on Aaron Brown, I'd argue that Pettigrew has been equally disappointing and they keep tossing him in there.

The bottom line is, I could be wrong, but I don't really see the evidence that some of you seem to in order to think the way you do. I see a lot of inconsistencies on the part of Schwartz. I'm not saying he's going to suck as much as Moronelli did, but as of this very moment, I don't see a whole lot of difference.